How Early Is Too Early, Really
At least on Detroit Lions rookie is having an incredible offseason so far, but surely it's too early to read anything out of it... right?
I was a little unplugged from the Detroit Lions in 2021. I had left SB Nation’s Pride of Detroit to continue my journalism career away from sports, and had just moved to New York City. The last thing on my mind that summer was Lions training camp. A majority of info I saw was via Twitter, as I scrolled in between conversations and during free moments at work. I wasn’t seeing a ton about camp that year.
One name kept appearing over and over in the reports from training camp I did see, though. Amon Ra St. Brown. Part of why he stood out so much was because of his absolutely incredible name. It’s hard not to notice that name while scrolling. But the words next to his name were glowing, describing an incredibly competitive, technically sound, physical and hard working player who was turning heads in his rookie year. A fourth round pick, the fifth player picked by the Lions, the 17th receiver selected that year — as he will constantly remind you, he wasn’t really someone I thought much of heading into the season.
It took a few weeks for St. Brown to find his footing in the NFL, but as his rookie season went on we quickly saw the development of a star. He was a lone bright spot in an awful 3-13-1 debut campaign for the Dan Campbell-Jared Goff era. St. Brown played a huge role in the team’s late season turnaround, notching 401 yards on 43 catches over the last four games.
Fast forward three years later, St. Brown was named a first team All-Pro in 2023 after a 1,500 yard season. He signed a four year, $120 million extension with the team, making him one of the highest paid players in NFL history.
Those early reports about St. Brown were running through my mind as I read observations from Lions rookie camp and OTAs this week. Specifically reports about Terrion Arnold, Detroit's first round pick who is expected to step in as a starting cornerback week 1. Arnold is, according to reports, tearing it up. He has been so dominant that quarterbacks invited for rookie camp were scared to look in his direction. Kindle Vildor, a guy off the scrap heap that started during the Lions playoff run because of an injury crisis at the position, has been getting picked on instead.
It is too early to say anything about Arnold — he hasn’t even gone through his first training camp. But seeing these reports are incredibly exciting. They also had me thinking about how much these early reports correlated to career success in the past.
An easy analogue for Arnold is Jeff Okudah, the third overall pick for the Lions in 2020. While Okudah was a more highly touted prospect than Arnold, the latter may have more expectations on his shoulder in the immediate as he is playing for a team aiming to win a Super Bowl — not one stuck in an extended rebuild.
Okudah had a worrying introduction to the NFL. He struggled in training camp and his starting role was no guarantee for week 1. He is a great athlete that had a high ceiling, but struggled almost immediately for the Lions. Okudah would never put those early struggled behind him, and developed into the biggest busts in recent Lions history.
Meanwhile, while Okudah disappointed, undrafted free agent corner Jerry Jacobs impressed in that same training camp. His work ethic and physicality earned him a spot on Detroit’s 53-man roster. While Jacobs was a flawed player during his Lions career, he remained a key part of their roster until he and the team split ways this offseason.
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Another corner, this one selected in the second round of the 2017 draft, Teez Tabor, had a rough rookie year training camp too. He never made an impact for the Lions, and is currently playing in the UFL.
Picked before Tabor in the draft was his teammate on the Florida Gators defense, Jarrad Davis. The run-first linebacker received comparisons to Ray Lewis heading into the 2017 draft, and was expected to shore up one of the league’s worst run defenses after the Lions selected him in the first round.
Initial reports on Davis out of camp were worrying, and he didn’t impress in preseason. He was a step slow, still learning to process the game at NFL speed. Many of us figured it would come eventually, he’d get more comfortable at the NFL level and learn to read the game.
It never did for Davis. While he did improve throughout his short Lions career, he was never much more than a below-average starter for them. They parted ways with him in 2020. He is currently out of the league at age 29.
None of this means anything for the Lions youngsters. But it might? I have always personally proceeded with the mind that nothing that happens this early matters. A rough OTA and camp period doesn’t mean much. Even a player who has a rough stretch to start his rookie year gave us nothing to worry about. Hell, Jared Goff was terrible in his rookie season for the Los Angeles Rams, now he is a good NFL starter who will earn more than a quarter-billion dollars over his career.
But maybe that’s wrong. Maybe Arnold looking the part so far this offseason is a true indicator he is the Lions CB1, not just of 2024 but of the future.
Maybe some players just have it, and that it can be sensed from the very start.