Ranking the NFL's Quarterbacks: The Vacuum at 2
For the first time in a very long time, there is really only one transcendent quarterback in the NFL
Ranking the top quarterbacks in the NFL has been an easy task for much of the past two decades. For years it was Tom Brady, followed by his arch-nemesis Peyton Manning. Usually Brady would be on top, but there were some select years where you could make an argument for Manning.
But then Manning faded. He was a shell of his former self at the end, even when his Denver Broncos won Super Bowl 50. Aaron Rodgers was standing by to replace him, though. The Green Bay Packers quarterback won his second career MVP in 2014, fully overtaking Manning and solidifying himself as yet another GOAT candidate.
And then came Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback burst onto the scene. He won MVP in his first season after taking over the starting role from Alex Smith, and has remained in contention for the title of the league’s best player since.
NFL fans were spoiled for a few years. Rodgers won MVP in 2020 and 2021, while Brady and Mahomes continued to put up elite numbers. But then it came crashing down. Brady had clearly taken a step back during his final season in 2022. Rodgers didn’t look like himself either, and then when he returned in 2023 he blew out his Achilles on the first drive of the season.
So that has left us in a spot we haven’t been in for a very long time. There is really only one obviously elite, GOAT-tier, quarterback in the NFL. There are a lot of other great quarterbacks, but just one truly transcendent talent.
That makes ranking quarterbacks more interesting and controversial than ever. In years past, the list would start at three or four. Now, the true list starts at two.
In my quarterback rankings, I am evaluating the players solely based on talent. While I believe the quarterback is the most important player on the field by a large margin, I don’t believe that all of a team’s successes and failures can be lobbed at one player.
These rankings are, in essence, who I would pick to win this year. If I had an average NFL roster, with average players at every position, and only cared about winning this year, these quarterbacks are ranked in the order that I would pick them to lead that team. Salary implications are not considered.
Patrick Mahomes
Who else? The two-time MVP, three-time Super Bowl champion and three-time Super Bowl MVP is the best player in the NFL. There is no debating this. You know this.
Lamar Jackson
This is where the list actually starts.
Jackson is the NFL’s most dynamic player. When he is at his best he can feel nearly as unstoppable as Mahomes. Jackson, also a two-time MVP, is the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time, and the lasting comparisons to Michael Vick are insulting at this point.
He is usually a good decision maker from the pocket, and while he has a tendency to be too fancy out of structure, you take the occasional mistakes alongside the more-often moments of greatness.
There are clear flaws in Jackson’s game. His arm isn’t as strong as Mahomes’ or a few other players directly below him on this list. He has a high “tilt-factor”, and can let bad games snowball. Jackson’s lows can be very low, and while they are rare they have occasionally come at the worst moments (wild card game against the Los Angeles Chargers in 2018). Injuries have clearly taken a toll on his body, too, as his once blazing long speed is not quite what it was when he was at Louisville.
Justin Herbert
Herbert is the biggest victim of the QB wins narrative. The Chargers are bad, and while he has not been perfect, he is the only reason they aren’t disastrously bad. Once Herbert was out of the picture due to an injury, the wheels spectacularly came off for Los Angeles.
There is not much you could ask for from Herbert when considering his physical traits. He has an arm that rivals Mahomes. He is athletic enough to escape the pocket and make plays on the run. Herbert is creative, decisive and confident. When you imagine an ideal NFL quarterback, it’s him.
Where he could improve is the previously-mentioned “tilt factor”. Herbert can let bad games compound. His incredible playmaking and dynamism will sometimes disappear for long stretches. When he’s wired, he rivals Mahomes. He is not always wired, though.
The addition of Jim Harbaugh as head coach will hopefully steer the Chargers in the right direction, and give Herbert the chance to finally succeed. There is not a player in the NFL with a bigger mismatch between his personal talent and team success.
Josh Allen
Being a Buffalo Bills fan must feel like playing a slot machine where the odds are heavily tilted in your favor. There is not a more daring quarterback in the league than Josh Allen. It can be hard to believe what he tries to get away with — and often does. The audacity. The gall.
What holds Allen back from the top three is that the slot machine does not always hit the jackpot. The same way the quarterback can win you football games with absurd and unthinkable plays, he can also lose them for you. At some point, confidence becomes recklessness. Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year, and some of those picks proved extremely costly. Buffalo’s week 1 loss to the New York Jets could almost entirely be placed on his shoulders.
This is probably just the player Allen is, and will be for the rest of his career. Cam Newton with a Brett Favre gene. A vast majority of the time you will get incredible highs, but the occasional lows will be devastating and can leave a sour taste in your mouth.
Dak Prescott
If Dak Prescott wasn’t the starting quarterback for the most easy to hate team in the NFL than the perception of him would be very different. He is, by all accounts, an elite quarterback. Whether with the Cowboys, or with someone else in free agency, his next contract will make him the highest paid player in NFL history — and deservedly so.
The best way to describe Prescott is if the four quarterbacks ahead of him on this list were 20% worse at everything. He is a complete quarterback in every sense, but does not have the same standout trait the guys ahead of him do. He has a strong arm, but not an elite one. He is very athletic, but not as much so as Jackson. He is a confident and decisive playmaker, but not like Allen.
One place where he may have his competition beat is accuracy. Prescott can thread the needle. His ball placement is elite, and outside of one very bizarre 2022 campaign, he has largely avoided turning the ball over throughout his career.
You may have raised an eyebrow when you saw Prescott all the way up here, but you shouldn’t have.
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow is simultaneously a great quarterback, while also being the most overrated quarterback in the league. Comparing him to the other four major quarterbacks in the AFC feels unfair. It’s a competition he will always lose. It’s not his fault either, as it’s the natural talent he lacks — his arm strength isn’t elite, he doesn’t have top end athleticism.
For the traits he has more control of — pocket presence, decision making, decisiveness, confidence — he dominates. Burrow might be the smartest quarterback in the NFL right now. He also has a ‘cool factor’ — basically the opposite of the ‘tilt factor’ I listed as a downside for some ranked above him. Even during an otherwise terrible game, he can lead a clutch drive or make a big play late in the game to get his team out of a jam.
Burrow has likely reached his peak, and should be in contention to win a ring if the Bengals can keep at least a decent roster around him.
Matthew Stafford
I have had too many arguments in the past about where to rank Matthew Stafford. As a Detroit Lions fan, I know his game. I know how great he is. For years I told anyone who would listen that he could be a Super Bowl winning quarterback if he got away from the toxicity of the 2010s Detroit Lions. And guess what he did right after he escaped?
But I also know Stafford’s shortcomings. He may have the strongest ‘tilt factor’ of anyone on this list so far. He is an older Josh Allen who takes less risks and earns fewer rewards. When he’s wired, he’s unstoppable, but he can take time to load into a game. Sometimes, the game will end and it feels like his loading bar never reached 100%.
CJ Stroud
What a rookie year for CJ Stroud. The second overall pick in the draft who was widely maligned coming out of Ohio State. My personal QB1 in last year’s draft, even I could not imagine how good he would be in his first season. Under his lead, the Houston Texans edged the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars for a division title — an incredible feat for a team that went 3-13-1 a year earlier. Their quarterback will be 22 at the start of next season and is already this good. It’s hard to see the Texans not being good for years to come if Stroud continues to progress.
Stroud has better physical tools than Burrow — the player whose game he most closely resembles ahead of him on this list. And while he does not have control of the game the same way the Bengals’ quarterback does, he is further along now than Burrow was in his rookie year.
He also, more than anything, has the ‘cool factor’, even as a rookie.
Kyler Murray
If I made this same list a few years ago, Kyler Murraw would be a little lower. Since then, he has come off of an ACL tear and made no meaningful improvements to his game. How did he move up?
Well, he has benefitted from the attrition the NFL has seen at the position. Players such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan have dropped out of the list through age. Deshaun Watson fell like a rock. Players such as Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield didn’t develop into superstars despite being highly touted draft picks.
Murray is, like Jackson, a hyper-mobile quarterback whose threat on the ground is something you have to account for on every snap. But a comparison between the two is not quite right. Murray has a much stronger arm than Jackson, and is an improviser in a different way. He is more hesitant to take off on the ground than Jackson is, often choosing to dance around in the backfield a beat longer to hope something opens up downfield. He is also a much more aggressive passer. A better comparison for Murray is that he is a smaller, and less-refined Watson (before all the creepy stuff).
Aaron Rodgers
It’s hard to place Rodgers, but with the aforementioned dearth at the position right now, this feels like a fair spot. At age 40, coming off of a torn Achilles last season and his worst season in a decade the year before, it may seem easy to write the four-time MVP off. But I’m not a fool, I’ve seen this guy perform dark magic.
The thing about Rodgers is that his success has not been solely because of physical talent. While he has one of the greatest arms in NFL history, he still would have been a good quarterback had he had average talent. Rodgers has mastered the mental side of the game. He never made mistakes. Even if he is a statue in the pocket this season, he is such a smart football player that I could still see him leading the New York Jets to the playoffs.
The issue is, however, the off the field stuff. This guy has gone insane. There is no indication yet that it has affected his football, but if there is one danger for the Jets is that the off the field circus will consume him. New York doesn't have to worry about Rodgers’ ankle, they have to worry about his Reddit account.
The rest of the list
Jordan Love - Can he pass his predecessor this year?
Trevor Lawrence - The Jaguars have found their franchise quarterback, but one has to question whether Lawrence will ever reach his true potential
Jalen Hurts - The Eagles quarterback came back down to earth after a spectacular 2022 season, can he still do it without a perfect roster around him?
Kirk Cousins - The aging quarterback was playing at an MVP level before blowing his ankle out last year
Jared Goff - Goff has revived his career in Detroit, and revived the Lions in the process. Doubts still remain if he can be more that the product of his system, though
Tua Tagovailoa - The Dolphins quarterback has everything but the arm
Geno Smith - Smith’s hype train came back down to earth last year and he is now widely recognized as the player he truly is — an average NFL starter
Caleb Williams - The stage is set for the rookie to be the Bears’ greatest ever quarterback in year 1
Read More: The World Waits for Caleb Williams
Justin Fields - Chicago’s previous quarterback could never put all the pieces together in the Windy City, but don’t be surprised if he ends up starting for the Steelers
Daniel Jones - Winning the 2022 Wild Card game was the worst thing that could have happened to the Giants
Deshaun Watson - Even if you can somehow block out the horrendous off-the-field stuff, Watson is just a bad quarterback now. A shell of his former self
Anthony Richardson - The Colts are hoping Richardson’s impressive start to his rookie year was more than just a flash in the pan
Drake Maye - A raw and unrealized Justin Herbert, can he reach the same heights?
Baker Mayfield - Mayfield looked like he was going to fall out of the league, but a good year with the Bucs last year has earned him at least a few more chances to live up to his top overall pick billing
Will Levis - The youngster was hit-or-miss in year 1, but with a full offseason program as QB1, you’d hope he would enter his sophomore year more refined
Brock Purdy - I just don’t see it with Purdy
Derek Carr - I also don’t see it with Carr. A middling player who has only declined as his career has continued. Expect Spencer Rattler to breathe down his neck this season
Read More: Spencer Rattler's Second Chance
Bryce Young - I had my doubts about Young coming out of Alabama, but his rookie season was shocking. Carolina made some improvements to their offense this season in a bid to at least give their young quarterback a chance
Russell Wilson - He is washed. Fields will send him to the bench early next season
Joe Flacco - A statue in the pocket but still a gunslinger at heart
Mac Jones - Jones, who will enter the 2024 season as a top tier backup, should see Baker Mayfield as inspiration for what is still possible in his young career
Sam Howell - It looked for a moment last year that Howell may have had what it took to be an NFL starter, and then it all came crashing down. A quarterback without any sort of pocket presence just won’t make it
JJ McCarthy - If he reaches his peak, the Vikings will once again have Kirk Cousins at quarterback
Read More: J.J. McCarthy is a Flawless Prospect. Is That Enough to Succeed in the NFL?
Zach Wilson - Wilson, a big armed quarterback with no ability to control it, feels like a perfect fit in Denver. Bo Nix will get a long leash, but Wilson could find himself back under center if that experiment goes catastrophically wrong
Jacoby Brissett - The quarterback returns home, re-signing with the New England Patriots after spending nearly a decade bouncing around the league. He could be the Patriots week 1 starter if Maye isn’t ready, and will likely be ok in that role.
Kenny Pickett - The new Philadelphia Eagles backup is quietly one of the biggest draft busts in recent NFL history
Jake Browning - Browning impressed in relief of Burrow last season. He plays like Josh Allen without the athleticism or arm strength
Aidan O’Connell - O’Connell will get a fair shot to start for the Raiders week 1 as they absolutely failed to acquire a good quarterback this offseason. He is currently sitting behind Gardner Minshew on the depth chart
Gardner Minshew - Minshew will get a fair shot to start for the Raiders week 1 as they absolutely failed to acquire a good quarterback this offseason. He is currently sitting ahead of Aidan O’Connell on the depth chart
Andy Dalton - Dalton, now 36, outplayed Bryce Young when he was under center for the Panthers last season