Do the Detroit Lions Even Need a Superstar Pass Rusher? — Offseason Series Part 3
A lot of offseason chatter has focused on the Lions nailing down a pass rusher this offseason, but will they make a move for one?
Pass rusher is an interesting need for the Detroit Lions. On one hand, they already have a relatively good player at the position in Aidan Hutchinson. They also spent a lot of capital to land him, picking him 2nd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, having just one edge rusher isn’t enough in today’s NFL. Detroit, at least of paper, still does not have anyone to play across from him.
How the Lions want to go about the edge defender position this offseason is a real look into not only how they see Hutchinson, but how “all in” the team really is. Are they ok with getting an average player? Someone who can hold their own but isn’t anything special. If they think Hutchinson, still only entering year three, can develop into a true top tier pass rusher than that would suffice. What if there are doubts about the starlet’s development, though? Detroit may believe Hutchinson is just an above average pass rusher, but not a true game wrecker, making the landing of a top tier stud an important task if they want to win the Super Bowl this year.
In part three of my offseason series, I’m going to lay out where Detroit stands at edge, and what their options are going forward. This is a continuation of a series that discussed the Lions’ own free agents, and their options at cornerback.
Detroit will likely start the offseason with around $80 to $85 million cap space if they expectedly sign Jared Goff to an extension. Though these figures do not account for deals to re-sign kicker Michael Badgley and special teams ace Jalen Reeves-Maybin. This means they will have a lot of room to maneuver, even if they splurge on a top tier corner. The Lions also have basically an entire slate of draft picks, as they do not have a fourth round pick but do have two thirds.
Current situation
The Lions have a real opportunity to renovate their edge defender room this offseason. The squad is headlined by Hutchinson, who has notched 21 sacks, 103 tackles and four interceptions in his first two NFL seasons. The Michigan product is still on his rookie contract but an extension will be in order next offseason.
Behind Hutchinson, there are some ok-but-not-good options. James Houston is one of the most interesting players on the roster. A sixth round pick in 2022, Houston did not make the team’s initial 53-man roster that year and spent the first half of his rookie season on the practice squad. He was a revelation when brought up to the active roster, however, totalling eight sacks in seven games.
Whether this is indicative of the Lions landing a steal on day 3 of the NFL draft, or if Houston just went on a “Linsanity” run is still unclear. He was speculated to have been on the roster bubble again to close out training camp last year. Houston would end up missing a majority of the season with a lower body injury.
No matter what, the Lions can bring him back on a league minimum deal this offseason if they chose to do so, as he is an exclusive rights free agent. Re-signing Houston is a pretty easy decision for the Lions as it is a low risk, high reward move. Even if he doesn’t make the 53 the cost is minimal.
The rest of the room is where the questions arise. Detroit’s opening day roster last year featured six edge defenders. Hutchinson is the only player that will without a doubt be around to start 2024.
Josh Paschal was the team’s primary EDGE2 last year. A second round pick in 2022, he has been a great disappointment so far in his career. Paschal has only notched three sacks through his NFL career. So many times last year, Hutchinson, or a blitzer from the back seven, would force a pressure and it felt like there needed to be a better player across from Hutchinson to clean up the plays for a sack. Paschal probably won't make it long in the NFL without a huge leap in year three, and his roster spot is not secure.
John Cominsky has been a surprise stud since he arrived in Detroit in the 2022 offseason. His addition late in free agency earned little attention, but he emerged as a key contributor for the Lions during their impressive turn around in the second half of that season. He was rewarded with a two year, $8 million, extension last offseason. While his name has been bandied about as a potential cap casualty, I think he stays around. He is a great depth edge rusher who provides against the run and the pass, and can kick inside on passing downs.
Free agents
The Lions have two unrestricted free agents at pass rusher this offseason. Romeo Okwara was a surprise stud pass rusher after arriving early in the Matt Patricia-era. The type of player he was in 2018 is exactly what the Lions need now. He has been a shell of himself since he tore his Achilles in 2021, however. His brother Julian, who was drafted by the Lions in 2020, was let go by the Lions to start this offseason. The younger Okwara has joined the Philadelphia Eagles.
Charles Harris is a player with all the potential in the world who just has not been able to put it together. Drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the 1st round in 2017, his career has largely been a dud. He joined Detroit on a three year deal in 2021, and impressed with a 7.5 sack season his first year in the Motor City. He has since returned to his largely unremarkable play. Harris turns 29 in a few days, and it is becoming clear that he will just never become that guy.
Filling the roster - Free agency
The Lions have already made one notable free agent signing at edge this offseason. Detroit brought in Mathieu Betts, the reigning Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the Canadian Football League. Because Betts had previously gone undrafted in 2019 and signed a deal with the Chicago Bears he does not need to enter the draft again and can sign directly with the Lions.
Coming from the CFL, it is hard to evaluate Betts. After a cursory film review, he seems to be a high motor player with a bit of burst coming off of the edge. He does not seem to have a lot of the bend or technical ability you’d want from a premier NFL rusher, but his sound tackling and reliability against the run could earn him a role. I would bet against him earning a 53 man roster spot, but it could happen.
Elsewhere in free agency, there are two superstars to be had at the position. Both Brian Burns and Josh Allen, first round draft picks in 2019 who have emerged as impressive pass rushers, will hit free agency. Allen is expected to be tagged by the Jacksonville Jaguars, and may not hit the market. Either way, I would not expect Detroit to be in the market for either of the premier pass rushers. General manager Brad Holmes is relatively averse to handing out big money deals and one would have to imagine that the Lions would not want to unsettle Hutchinson by stripping him his role as the team’s #1 guy.
Other players that could probably be written off are Bryce Huff, the New York Jets rusher that is set to hit free agency. Huff is a great pass rusher but extremely poor against the run. Hutchinson already has problems defending the run, and I cannot imagine the Lions wanting to bring in a second guy with the same problems. Chase Young is an extremely talented player who has been criticized for showing a lack of effort on occasion. He doesn’t seem like a fit for Dan Campbell’s locker room either, especially with the high price tag he will come with.
The Lions could go in one of two directions. They can either find a second-tier veteran on a high, but not blockbuster, contract, to come in. Or they can take a risk on a younger player who may not be the best player today, but has a lot of upside and can be a long term piece across from Hutchinson.
Through the veteran route, the player getting the most attention from Lions fans is Danielle Hunter — who the Lions have long seen as an enemy after spending the first eight years of his career with the Minnesota Vikings.
Hunter will turn 30 next season but is coming off of the most productive season of his career. He notched career highs with 16.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 23 tackles for loss. He has also stayed healthy throughout his career, and should have a lot left in the tank as he eclipses the 30-threshold.
He would be a great fit for the Lions. Hunter can move along the defensive line, is a strong defender against the run and is considered to be a positive locker room presence. However, the market for him will be hot. Hunter could easily end up with a multi-year deal worth over $20 million each season. It is hard to see the Lions committing that much money to a second edge rusher.
Cheaper options could include Denico Autry. The veteran edge rusher will turn 34 this summer, making a long term deal unlikely. Like Hunter, he is coming off a career year with his 11.5 sacks and 50 tackles being the most he’s ever notched. He often moved between the defensive interior and the edge for the Tennessee Titans and has remained healthy in his older age.
Autry could be available on a short term deal in the $10-$15 million range. He is almost a perfect fit for the Lions. He can rush the passer, defend against the run, move around the defensive front, he’s a locker room leader, high effort player and he won’t break the bank. Don’t be surprised if he ends up in Detroit on a deal along the lines of 2 years, $27 million. However, the Titans are reportedly also interested in bringing the veteran back and he may want to stay in town.
Another veteran option is Za’Darius Smith. Another familiar foe after he spent three years with the Green Bay Packers from 2019 to 2021, before joining the Vikings in 2022, Smith was arguably the league’s best pass rusher at one point. He is a technically gifted pass rusher who seems to have every tool in his bag. He can play all along the defensive line and is also excellent against the run. He is the ideal player for the Lions (I’ve long been a fan of his, and he was my 2019 Defensive Player of the Year). Smith, who turns 32 right before next season, may get a lot of attention this year, though, and could get a mega-deal to close out his great career. Detroit may not be willing to hand out a long term deal in the $20 million per year range.
If the Lions want to go younger, Jonathan Greenard of the Houston Texans could be a good fit. Greenard played across rookie sensation Will Anderson Jr. last season, and is set to get his first major NFL payday at age 26 after a 12.5 sack contract year. Greenard, like the others on this list, is a versatile player with a high motor and can defend against the run. At 6’3, 263 lbs, he might just be a touch small, but he still fits the Lions’ mold. Greenard will have a hot market, however. A 4 year, $70 million deal could be in order for him.
Other options include Dorance Armstrong, 26, and Marcus Davenport, 27. Both should be cheaper than Greenard and fit the mold of a Lions edge defender.
Draft
The Lions pick at 29, which is a really interesting place to get an edge defender. It is a good spot to pick a high ceiling, low floor, pass rusher who may not contribute this year, but could become a star in the future.
In 2023, the Cincinnati Bengals drafted Myles Murphy as 28th overall, the New Orleans Saints grabbed Bryan Breese 29th and the Kansas City Chiefs landed Felix-Anudike Uzomah 31st. None of these guys really contributed their rookie years, but they were not picked to. All were picked to stash for later, with the teams hoping the high ceiling rookies would eventually develop into superstars.
With Brad Holmes insinuating during a press conference last week that he sees the draft less as a vehicle to fill needs but more so to stash talent — the “best player available” philosophy — I could easily see the Lions following the same path.
This makes projecting who the Lions will take back here harder. Some prospects don’t really fit their mold, but Holmes may be willing to look past that to land a potential star. Defensive schemes don’t stay the same forever.
Chop Robinson, out of Penn State, becomes an interesting option. At 6’3, 245 lbs, Robinson is a little small. But he can move. He jumps off the film. His impressive first step leaves many tackles in the dust and he has game-wrecking potential in the right match up. On many plays he just comes flying off of the edge to meet the quarterback in the pocket. Robinson is not great against the run and probably cannot play inside, but Detroit may look past that to bet on his upside.
Jonah Elliss, out of Utah, is a similar prospect. A small but extremely athletic prospect with high upside. He might not fit what the Lions are looking for in free agency, but he could develop into something special and is worthy of a shot in the draft.
Bralen Trice, out of Washington, is a player that fits the Lions’ current edge defender mold and could be available at 29. At 6'4, 273, he has the size. At Washington, he was a powerful edge rusher that maybe does not have the bag of tools you’d want from an elite guy (Hutchinson has the same problem). However, he has a high motor and was excellent against the run. If available, it is hard to see the Lions passing up on him.
What might happen
The Lions have at least one good edge defender in Hutchinson, and they might see more in Paschal than I do. This means that they may not make a major splash at the position, despite what fans might think.
Basically, their edge room may not look very different next year. Hutchinson, Paschal and Cominsky will all remain on the roster. I could see the Lions inking Okwara to a cheap, one year deal too. Houston will be re-signed, but he will likely have to fight for a roster spot and is no guarantee to be a Lion come week 1. This leaves two spots left.
I believe Autry is the most likely signing if he can be pried away from the Titans. Detroit will also be in prime position to pick an edge rusher at the end of the first round, and believe that is exactly what they will do. My money would be on Robinson, but Trice and Elliss are good candidates as well.
Autry would start across Hutchinson, with Robinson and Cominsky being big parts of the rotation when everyone is healthy.