How Jared Goff's Extension Will Look, and How The Detroit Lions Can Free Millions in Cap Space - Offseason Series Part 1
The Lions are entering the most important offseason in franchise history. What moves can they make to maximize their resources this spring?
The Detroit Lions want to win the Super Bowl in 2024. They were just one disaster of a third quarter away from doing it this year. With a full slate of draft picks, $48 million in cap space to start the offseason, and a ton of needs to fill, this could be the most important offseason in franchise history.
Over these next few posts, I’ll lay out moves the Lions can make this offseason to free up cap space and maximize their opportunity to win in 2024. In part one, We’ll first look at the Lions’ current players, what can be done to drop their cap numbers, and who should stick around.
I heavily used Spotrac and OverTheCap for this project. You will also notice throughout that I round figures upwards. This is to avoid leaving the Lions with too much hypothetical cap room and letting my imagination run wild. Also, these are all projections, I do not have any inside information as to discussions between the Lions and individual players.
Jared Goff
At this point, it is almost a guarantee that Jared Goff will be extended by the Lions. The quarterback was initially believed to be a placeholder between Matthew Stafford and whoever comes next — or at least that’s what fans believed — but after an impressive 2023 he’s set to be a true franchise quarterback in the Motor City.
His extension will be large, easily in the nine figure range. Spotrac evaluates his market value to be around $37.4 million per year. Over a four year year contract that almost rounds out to a clear $150 million. I’d expect that figure to end up a little higher, however. The New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr to a 4 year, $150 million deal last offseason. Carr’s deal was inflated by the fact that he was a free agent when he signed it, and Goff is still rostered in 2024, but you imagine Goff’s camp will use it as a baseline for negotiations.
For this exercise, the ballpark estimate I’ll use for Goff is a 4 year, $160 million contract. This would keep Goff, 29, in Detroit into his early 30s. His average annual value (AAV) would match with Stafford.
While this is an AAV jump of around $7 million, the extension will save money for the Lions in 2024. Goff is owed $21.6 million in base salary in 2024, along with a $5 million roster bonus. Detroit will likely convert this amount into a signing bonus and give Goff the money up front this offseason. Add a small bump to round it to $30 million. This money would be prorated across Goff’s contract, totaling around $7.5 million annually against the cap.
The quarterback’s salary will be minimal. During the first two years of Goff’s initial extension with the Rams in 2019 he made a combined $2 million in salary. Carr, to bring him back for comparison, had a salary of $1.5 million in 2023.
Combining the prorated signing bonus with Goff’s salary would put the quarterback’s cap hit at around $9 million. To give me a little breathing room I’ll round it to $10 million for this exercise. Under his current contract, Goff’s cap hit is expected to be $31.6 million, meaning the Lions would save $21 million in cap space.
Goff wins here too, as he ends up taking home around $31 million in cash for the 2024 season, compared to the $26 million he was expected to take home.
Tracy Walker
Walker has been a fan favorite since he was drafted in the third round in 2018. While he was a bright spot during a depressing Matt Patricia era, Walker has fallen out of favor as the roster around him has gotten more talented, and the growth he showed early in his career stagnated. The safety was benched late last season.
He signed a 3 year, $25 million contract in 2022. In 2024, the final year of that deal, Walker will count for $12.8 million against the cap, a huge number for someone that will not be starting next year. Detroit has two options to get this figure down.
The easy one is to cut him. Detroit can save $5.5 million by releasing Walker, but there is a steep $7.3 million in dead cap that comes with it. In a win-now year they may be willing to eat it.
But, Walker is someone who has received a lot of praise for the great locker room player he is, and culture is everything for these Lions. Maybe they want to keep him around? A member of the old guard who was around when the team was at rock bottom. A guy who reportedly took a pay cut to remain in Detroit a few years ago.
The Lions could free some cap space by restructuring Walker. With Chauncey Gardner-Johnson likely leaving in free agency, Detroit would have a hole in its rotation that needs to be filled. Keeping Walker around as a backup nickel and strong safety has some merit. He is also a stand out on special teams.
Walker is owed $8 million in cash this year across his salary and workout bonus. Detroit could convert that into a signing bonus and work out a deal with him to bring his 2024 number down below $5 million while keeping him on the roster.
This is where things start getting a little funky, though. 2025 is a void year for Walker. Effectively, this means that the Lions will suffer a cap charge of $2.5 million for Walker no matter what. If he isn’t on the roster — he’s set to be a free agent after next season — that charge will be there. If he signs a new contract with the team, that $2.5 million will be on top of what the number would be based on that contract.
In effect, a Walker restructure would just be borrowing $8 million from the Lions 2025 salary cap to use in 2024. Since this is supposed to be a win-now year, Detroit’s front office might think it's a worthwhile endeavor.
Taylor Decker
The Lions’ longest tenured player is set to hit free agency in 2025. Decker, who said this week he wants to end his career in Detroit, is entering the final year of an extension he signed to end his rookie contract.
The tackle, 30, is set to could for $19 million against the cap in 2024. If Goff signs an extension similar to what we laid out here then Decker would carry the roster’s largest cap hit.
I believe the Lions will let Decker finish his contract and work on re-signing him next year. Decker told reporters earlier this week that the team has not initiated talks yet. Converting the $13 million he is owed this year into a signing bonus and signing Decker into his mid-30s would help the Lions in the short term but expose them to a huge risk if he begins to decline soon.
Draft:
According to OverTheCap, the Lions draft picks will cost them around $3 million to sign this season. This is obviously subject to change if they trade up or down, but we will use this number.
Cap changes:
After all of that the Lions will likely have slightly less than $75 million in cap room to operate with this offseason. A pretty staggering total, and general manager Brad Holmes is owed legitimate credit for it.
The Lions’ Needs
Now that we know how much the Lions have to play with this offseason, it’s time to put it to use. The Lions roster has some major needs, more than you would expect for a team that just played in an NFC Championship game.
Tier 1 needs:
CB1
Tier 2 needs:
EDGE2
G1
G2
Tier 3 needs:
WR2/3
S
K
The Lions are in desperate need to get a top cornerback. While Cam Sutton played like an unrosterable player during the second half of 2023, they are stuck with him this offseason and he will likely be CB2. Detroit will just need him to be ok, and get some of his old form back. Priority for the Lions is getting a true CB1 to play across from him and relieve him of the pressure of having to guard the opposing team’s best player.
With three guards set to hit free agency this offseason, Jonah Jackson, Graham Glasgow and Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Detroit will be forced to fill both positions on the offensive line. While guard is not generally considered to be a premium role, a team which runs the ball between the tackles as much as the Lions do needs to be strong at this position to succeed.
Aidan Hutchinson is also in desperate need for a reliable pass rushing partner to play across from him. That could be James Houston, but the third-year player was already on the roster bubble last season even before losing basically his entire sophomore year with an injury. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Detroit also needs to add another receiver in case Josh Reynolds walks. Whether the new guy would be ahead of Jameson Williams on the depth chart is an argument for later, but someone needs to fill that role. If Tracy Walker gets cut they’ll need another rotational safety.
The Lions' issues at kicker have already been widely debated. Some believe their inability to roster a formidable kicker is the reason they did not play in the Super Bowl last weekend. Either way, someone new is certainly going to at least compete for the job.
In-house free agents
Detroit can obviously fill a lot of these needs with guys they already have. Graham Glasgow and Reynolds are obvious candidates to be re-signed. Spotrac projects Reynolds’ value to be around $7 million per year. It is unclear whether he will give a hometown discount, but he is a player who has only really found success playing with Goff, so you’d assume he would have an inclination to stick around.
The Lions may be able to ink Reynolds to a 2 year, $16 million deal with a void year at the end of it. He could get $9 million up front as a signing bonus — by far that largest payout of his career — and count around $4.5 million against the cap. To be fair for the rest of this exercise, we will mark him down as a $6 million cost.
Glasgow is already on a void year in 2024, and should get a payday to stay in the Motor City. He was a great player in his return, after leaving for the Denver Broncos in 2022. Mid-tier starting guards in the NFL currently make around $3 million annually, per Spotrac. As Glasgow would likely be the best guard on the roster, the Lions may push him up to $4 million.
Dan Skipper is also a good bet to stick around. The rotational tackle played 101 snaps last year and seems to be liked in the locker room. We’ll give him $1.5 million on a 1 year deal.
So what happens to everyone else? The Lions will likely let Gardner-Johnson walk. Kindle Vildor, Michael Badgley, Emmanuel Moseley, Romeo Okwara and Will Harris probably have a chance to get re-signed to a cheap deal, but keeping them around is not a priority either. Vaitai has been an ok player for Detroit, but will be 31 when next season starts. Detroit could keep him around for depth but he will probably not be a starting guard next season unless something goes wrong.
Part 2:
On March 14, when the new NFL calendar year starts and teams can sign free agents, Detroit will likely be in need of a star corner, another pass rusher, a starting guard, and depending on how you feel about Josh Reynolds, probably another wide receiver too. With around $12 million burned already, they will be left with $63 million to work with.
In the next part of this column we’ll review the Lions’ options to fill these needs, and what they can do with the cap space they have to maximize their roster during their all-in year.