Winning Players Win Football Games. Brad Holmes Knows That
The Detroit Lions like a very particular type of player — guys that won a lot of games in college
Some of the greatest upsets you will see in any sport come in European soccer. Teams with shoestring budgets and semi-pro players defeat teams who are household names across the world. The Moldovan club FC Sheriff, who even obsessive soccer fans have never heard of, can steal a late victory against Real Madrid, among the most famous sports properties on earth, in the Champions League. The American equivalent of this would be a junior college team defeating the Kansas City Chiefs.
These games can seem baffling. How can some of the greatest soccer players to ever play the sport find themselves even playing a competitive game against these guys from Moldova? There is an inherent randomness in sports — Sheriff won because Luxembourgish player Sebestian Thill happened to produce the best strike of his life in the 89th minute — but many speculate there is more to it. These types of upsets don’t just happen so often in European soccer because of dumb luck, but because these teams know how to win.
Sheriff, while unknown to a majority of fans, are absolutely dominant in Moldovan soccer. They have won eight straight league titles, and have been Champions of Moldova in 21 of the last 23 seasons. They, more than anything, are a program that knows how to win games.
The ability to “win games” is an interesting one. In theory, any talent a player has — athleticism, game IQ, stamina — helps their ability to win. But in team sports, the winner is not actually the team that “outplayed” the other team, but the one that converted more of their opportunities to complete a certain objective.
In soccer, it's putting the ball in the back of the net. Real Madrid dominated the game against Sheriff. They controlled the ball 75% of the time and registered 31 shots, compared to just four by their opponents — a seven-fold difference in scoring opportunities. Sheriff was thoroughly outplayed in this game. But, they converted two shots into goals, Madrid only converted one. Better luck next time, guys. (Real Madrid ended up winning the Champions League, defeating my beloved Liverpool FC in a final where they were out-shot and out-possessed by the Reds. It all comes full circle.)
In American football, this means converting first downs, ending redzone opportunities with touchdowns and creating turnovers and scoring off of them. Maintaining focus in big moments, not shriveling up when playing under the brightest lights. Playing all 60 minutes, not getting complacent and doing your job. Continuously working hard to maximize opportunities on every snap.
It may seem abstract. Too ambiguous to quantify. But having players who “know how to win games” can be a value for any sports team — or at least Brad Holmes seems to think so.
The Detroit Lions general manager has been at the helm of a massive transformation of the football team. Just Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow have remained from the roster he originally took over in 2021 (Jaylen Reeves-Maybin and Graham Glasgow were both Lions draftees who left the team previously before returning last year). A franchise synonymous with losing for so long will enter the 2024 season among the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Much ink has already been spilled about the importance of building through the draft. How so many of Holmes' star draft picks, especially after round 1, have fueled the quick turnaround. There are many traits associated with Lions draftees — players that are physical, locker room leaders, high effort — but one seems to be flying under the radar.
Holmes likes to draft players that win.
Every single player Detroit selected in the 2024 NFL draft played for a winning team last year. Terrion Arnold’s Alabama Crimson Tide were 12-2 SEC champions that played in the College Football Playoff. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., selected from the Missouri Tigers, was a part of a legendary year for the program, finishing an 11-2 season with a victory in the Sugar Bowl.
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Even Giovanni Manu, the tackle Detroit picked out of the ranks of Canadian college football, played for a 9-3 British Columbia Thunderbirds team that won the Hardy Cup and Mitchell Bowl — and played in Canada’s equivalent of the national championship.
It’s not just this year. Holmes’ incredible roster turn-around via the draft has been built using players who have proven they can play for winning teams. Holmes has never drafted a player in the first two rounds that didn’t play for a college team that was nationally relevant the year prior. Players such as Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch had most recently played in the College Football Playoff before arriving in Detroit.
Penei Sewell, Holmes’ first draft pick in 2021, came from a PAC-12 Champion Oregon Ducks squad in an abbreviated COVID year. Levi Onwuzurike, picked the round after Sewell, came from a 3-1 Washington Huskies team that won its PAC-12 division. Josh Paschal, who the Lions grabbed in the second round in 2022, played for a 10-3 Kentucky Wildcats team which finished the season ranked 15th in the Coaches Poll.
Jack Campbell and Sam LaPorta’s Iowa Hawkeyes are the worst team Holmes has mined for high draft picks. The 2022 edition of the Hawkeyes still finished 8-5 and were in contention for a division title.
Of the 29 selections Holmes has made across four drafts, only four players came from a team that had a losing regular season record the year before — Ifeatu Melifonwu, Jermar Jefferson, Kerby Joseph and Derrick Barnes. Even when he’s picked from small programs — Manu, Colby Sorsdal from William & Mary, Brodrick Martin from Western Kentucky — it was in years where they dominated their level of the game. Christian Mahogany, the guard that finished off the Lions 2024 draft class, played for a Boston College team that blew past expectations with a 7-6 record in 2023.
But how has picking players from winning teams actually translated into team success? Each player is, individually, just one piece of upwards of 80 players on a college football team.
While it's hard to truly judge how an intangible such as “winning” can translate, Holmes has given some insight. In his press conference after Day 1 of the 2024 NFL draft, he mentioned that he likes picking players from Alabama because of how the program operates.
“Those guys practice hard. They practice intense,” he said after being asked about the Lions selecting a first round player from the Crimson Tide in three consecutive drafts.
He went on to note that he likes to pick players from programs that do things the way he likes. Holmes also mentioned Iowa — Campbell, LaPorta — and Michigan — Hutchinson — as other programs that are run similarly to Alabama.
So it isn’t the winning itself that attracts Holmes. It’s that winning signals a certain process behind the scenes that he wants players to be familiar with.
Winning programs such as Alabama, Michigan, Oregon and Washington, play tough, physical football. Teams that win games do so because they don’t take plays off. They play in massive stadiums with atmospheres that dwarf anything you’ll find in the NFL, with millions watching at home. A five star kid isn’t guaranteed a starting job at these programs, as there is always another stud waiting behind them to snatch opportunities they don’t fully grasp. Keeping your playing time means showing up every day, not just during the games but during practice too.
It’s these traits — that are conducive to victory — that Holmes and the Lions seem to value most.