Who is the GOAT? Definitely Not Aaron Rodgers

Any argument for Rodgers as the greatest player in NFL history died last weekend

Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Fame quarterback, but his GOAT candidacy has come to an end (NFL Network)

Green Bay Packers head coach Mike LaFleur sent his field goal unit onto the field on 4th and goal from the eight. Mason Crosby would nail a 26 yard kick and cut the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ lead to five with two minutes to play. Green Bay would not get the ball back, losing the 2020 divisional round matchup 31-26. 

It would be Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ only chance to face Buccaneers' quarterback Tom Brady in the playoffs. The Buccaneers went on to win the Super Bowl, Brady’s seventh. Rodgers would reach a full decade since his lone appearance in the big game.

2020 was another “what could have been” year for Rodgers’ career. His talent was evident. He is a hyper-athletic quarterback with a cannon for an arm. He can make any throw from any angle. Rodgers is crafty, just as effective making plays when things break down as he does from a clean pocket. He thrives in chaos. So many times, an opposing team will think they have him down, only for him to break their hearts with yet another miraculous play.

But he just never had enough help, his proponents would say. The Packers have gone nearly two decades without drafting a receiver in the first round. While Brady got to play with the likes of Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski during his career, Rodgers was left with Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

While Brady had seven-times as many rings as Rodgers, there was always the argument that the latter was the more “talented” passer. If you put Rodgers in a situation like Brady’s — with the weapons he had, the coach he had and the talented defenses he was paired with — Rodgers would have similar success.

Tom Brady’s Buccaneers would go on to win the Super Bowl after defeating Rodgers’ Packers in the divisional round (NFL Films)

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Patrick Mahomes has just won his third Super Bowl title at just 28 years old, 12 years younger than Rodgers. His Kansas City Chiefs are the first team since Brady’s New England Patriots in 2005 to repeat as champions. Mahomes is also nearly matching Brady’s miraculous championship pace, as the now-retired quarterback won his third ring at age 27.

Mahomes’ spectacular success in his first seven seasons — he only played one game in his first — has entered him into the GOAT conversation. Every talk show this week has entered the debate. It has been a hot conversation on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. No matter which side of the debate someone falls on, it is clear that Mahomes has a chance to catch Brady.

Missing from this debate this week is Rodgers. While it feels like a lifetime ago at this point, the debate was largely Brady vs. Rodgers before this season. Rodgers has even followed in Brady’s footsteps late in his career. Like Brady, the former Packers quarterback crossed conferences last offseason, requesting a trade to the New York Jets. Before his season was tragically cut short after an Achilles injury on their first drive of the season, the Jets entered the year as Super Bowl contenders. They were compared to the 2020 Buccaneers, who added Brady as the final piece and subsequently won the Super Bowl. Rodgers was supposed to be next up. Winning with the Jets would prove the Packers let him down.

Instead, though, Mahomes proved many of the excuses offered to Rodgers over the years were bunk. Not only is Rodgers not in the GOAT conversation, he never should have been.

Patrick Mahomes has clearly passed Rodgers in the NFL GOAT debate (NBC Sports)

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Rodgers will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and is among the best 10 quarterbacks in the history of football. That is not a debate, and I am not denying that at all in this piece. He is not, however, in the tier of quarterbacks of Brady and Mahomes.

The pro-Rodgers GOAT argument — which is dead, I should repeat — relies on blaming his teammates. If Rodgers had a good offense around him, he would have won a comparable number of rings as Brady. This would include lowering Brady’s ring count by beating him in the playoffs a few times. Let's look at the teams Rodgers had around him, however.

While the Packers did not draft a wide receiver in the first round during Rodgers’ tenure, they did draft many in the second round. A lot of them were hits. A year after drafting Rodgers in 2005, the Packers spent a second round pick on Greg Jennings, a pretty good receiver who was named to two Pro Bowls and scored the game winning touchdown for the Packers in Super Bowl XLV.

In 2008, Green Bay spent the 36th overall pick in the draft on Jordy Nelson, who would develop into Rodgers’ most trusted receiver, Green Bay’s leading receiver in Super Bowl XLV, and went on a spectacular run from 2011 to 2016 (though he did miss the entire 2015 season with an injury). Nelson was named to the franchise’s Hall of Fame and was a second team All-Pro in 2014. Nelson’s primary receiving partner, and another legend of this Packers era, Randall Cobb, arrived in the second round of the 2011 draft. Cobb remained a part of Green Bay’s offense until 2018, before a short return in 2021 and 2022. He followed Rodgers to New York last offseason.

The best of all of the second round receivers was Davante Adams, picked 53rd overall in 2014. Also likely a Hall of Famer, Adams was the NFL’s best receiver in 2020 and 2021, before leaving for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022.

There was basically never a point where Rodgers did not have at least 2 solid NFL receivers on the roster. When he took over the starting role in 2008, he had Jennings and Nelson. When Jennings left in 2013, Cobb stepped into his role. From a period from 2014 to 2017, the Packers had Cobb, Nelson — a franchise Hall of Famer, and Adams — a future NFL Hall of Famer, on the roster. Year after year, however, the Packers would fall short, and blame would be pegged to the front office’s inability to get Rodgers the weapons he needs.

Valdes-Scantling would emerge as a villain during this period. The receiver was drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and stepped into the role left behind by Cobb and Nelson across from Adams. He was not quite a star, probably not the quality necessary to be a starting NFL WR2, but he is a much better player than one would expect from a fifth round pick. Him being the team’s second best receiver behind Adams from 2018 to 2021 would often be pointed to as a major flaw that Rodgers would not be able to overcome, however.

Davante Adams, despite being in the second round, is one of the most talented receivers of his era and is a future Hall of Famer

Evaluating receivers by their draft pedigree is a fool’s errand, however. Gronkowski was a second round pick. Deion Branch, the best receiver on Brady’s early Super Bowl teams, was also selected in round 2. Edelman was a seventh round selection. Wes Welker was an undrafted free agent that bounced between the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins before arriving in New England and becoming an All-Pro. Growkowski is the only Brady receiver with anywhere near the talent as Adams. Nelson and Cobb are better players than Edelman Welker and Branch.

But what really puts the nail in this argument’s coffin is Mahomes’ victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

The Chiefs leading receiver this year was tight end Travis Kelce, an all-time great who was drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft. A player who is also past his peak at age 34. Who else did Mahomes have, however? The top three listed wide receivers were Rashee Rice — yet another second round pick, Justin Watson — a fifth rounder, and Valdez-Scantling.

Looking just at draft position is never a fair evaluation of a player. Mahomes won his first ring alongside Tyreek Hill, a fifth rounder that developed into a future Hall of Famer. But that goes both ways, Rodgers’ receivers, while not first rounders, were very good. Mahomes’ are, other than Kelce, not very good.

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The talent vs. success debate is one that permeates every sport. LeBron James is unlikely to match Michael Jordan’s six rings before he retires, and Bill Russell trumped both with 11 championships. But, there is a strong argument that James, based on his talent, is the best player in NBA history.

A similar argument was often made for Rodgers. While his single ring pales in comparison to Brady, he was clearly a special talent. He has a spectacular arm, much stronger than Brady’s, and the ability to throw from every angle. He is incredibly athletic, and rarely puts the ball in harm's way. Sometimes it felt like he knew what the defense was going to do before they did it themselves, and he had a special connection with some of his receivers.

Rodgers’ Packers were also consistent winners. They went to the playoffs eight straight times from 2009 to 2016, and 11 times in 14 years. Eight of the NFC North division titles from 2011 to 2021 were won by Green Bay. They were dominant. They only went to one Super Bowl, but they were still a great team year-after-year.

The standard set by Rodgers in the GOAT argument has entirely been blown out of the water by Mahomes, however. Mahomes has a more talented arm, is as good as an improviser, and more athletic. While Rodgers might still take the crown when it comes to throwing with anticipation and some of the more cognitive aspects of the game, he’s beaten everywhere else. 

Mahomes has also shown the ability to get back and win another Super Bowl, and then another one.

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Rodgers’ first season with the New York Jets was cut short after suffering a season ending injury minutes into Week 1

So what is there to make of Rodgers’ legacy? He is a walk-in first ballot Hall of Famer assuming none of the off the field problems become too large. Taking the long embattled New York Jets to the promised land will absolutely be a boost to his legacy, but at age 40 and coming off of a torn Achilles it is becoming increasingly unlikely he will be in his 2010s form again. As a four time MVP, he is one away from chasing down Peyton Manning to tie the all time record. With quarterback play declining across the league, he may be able to.

He is likely to have a similar legacy to that of Manning overall. An all-time great who just happened to be around at the same time as another legend. Manning, however, battled Brady many times on the largest stage. While he often came up short, he did manage to defeat him a few times too.

Rodgers, on the other hand, spent his career failing to get over the Jimmy Garropolo-hump.