We Are Still Waiting For Keon Coleman's Breakout — Will it Come in the NFL?
The Florida State receiver has a ton of talent, but failed to translate it into production at the college level. Could he do it in the pros?
Major Burns never stood a chance. The 6’2 LSU Tigers safety is not small by any measurement, but was still dwarfed by his opponent in the slot. Burns played the route perfectly the whole way, not letting the receiver stack him, and using the boundary to squeeze how much space he had. He even got his head around in time.
But it didn’t matter. Keon Coleman used his strong hands to create space before tracking the ball and leaping into the air to snag it — the same way Dwight Howard did so many rebounds for the Orlando Magic. Here in Orlando, the Florida State Seminoles receiver made it look simple, nimbly coming back to a lofted pass from quarterback Jordan Travis for his second touchdown of the game.
It was an exciting moment for the Seminoles faithful. It had, in the immediate, tied the score in the team’s top 10 matchup against LSU. But it also represented an auspicious start for Coleman’s career in Tallahassee. The Michigan State Spartans transfer arrived with much hype, and it already looked to be justified. This was Coleman’s second touchdown in the first half, and he’d complete his hat trick later in the fourth quarter. He led the Seminoles with nine catches for 122 yards as Florida State romped to a 45-24 win over the Tigers.
Coleman looked on the verge of a breakout. He was a four star super athlete coming out of high school. He was such a great athlete he even played for the Spartans basketball team in 2021. Coleman managed nearly 800 yards and seven touchdowns for a struggling 2022 Michigan State team, leading a room that also included current Green Bay Packers receiver Jayden Reed.
Now at Florida State he would truly have a chance to play under the sport’s brightest lights. The Seminoles were primed to compete for the college football playoff, and quarterback Jordan Travis was far better than anyone in the Michigan State QB room. He perfectly lofted the pass that Coleman caught over Burns. Laying it right on top of him, putting it slightly behind him, where his receiver could come back and get to it without giving the safety a chance.
The stage was set for Coleman to become a star in 2023, but while the Seminoles flew to an ACC Championship and 13-1 season, the receiver’s breakout just never came. He’d catch just 50 passes for 658 yards in 2023, a statistical step back from the year before. While he had big games against LSU and later against Syracuse, he was pedestrian week-to-week.
Coleman has now set his sights to the NFL, forgoing his senior year in college. With 1,500 career receiving yards, his college production seems to be lacking for a player going pro a year early. However, the 6’3, 210 lb, receiver has the raw talent necessary to succeed at the next level. Some mock drafts have him sneaking into the first round, even.
But is Coleman’s natural talent truly enough to make up for what he didn’t do in the box score?
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"I don't feel like there's any certain weakness in my game," Coleman told ESPN ahead of the NFL Combine.
The receiver exudes confidence, Chris Solari, who covers Michigan State football and basketball for the Detroit Free Press, told Bird’s Eye Football.
“The confidence level is through the roof,” he said. “I’ve been around some guys with confidence in their athletic gifts, but not someone who is as [deeply] athletic as Keon [Coleman]. Someone who can prove it.”
Coleman was a super athlete. Solari points to a February 2022 basketball game where, just months removed from football season, Coleman played meaningful first half minutes against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Just being on the court, Solari says, speaks to just how incredible of a talent he is.
But Coleman’s love of multiple sports could have hurt his football career early on.
“When he came in, he was a raw talent,” Solari said. “He worked hard on his route running and timing. He was a three sport athlete who didn’t have the kind of specialization that a lot of kids in this modern era [have].
“When he cut [track and] basketball, I think you saw a more polished product.”
The 2022 season was Coleman’s first chance to play for a good football team. Michigan State started the year ranked 15th in the county, with lofty expectations to challenge for the Big 10 title after an 11-2 season the year before.
But the Spartans failed, and their leading receiver would go absent for long stretches. Coleman had three 100 yard games all season, against Washington, Michigan and Indiana. A lot of this production in these games came in garbage time. The Indiana game, which the Spartans won in overtime, was the only time he played a key role in a Michigan State victory.
His career day came against the Wolverines, catching five passes for 155 yards. More than 100 of these yards came early in the game while it was still close, but the Spartans were drubbed 29-7, and a 51 yard catch in garbage time gave Coleman’s box score stats a boost late. Against Washington, he had 40 yards in a first half where the Spartans fell behind 29-8. He’d add nearly another 80 yards in a second half where the Huskies defense was going through the motions.
In many games where the Spartans offense could have used a boost, he was nowhere to be found. He had just 26 yards in Michigan State’s upset of a 7-1 14th ranked Illinois team. With bowl eligibility on the line late in the year, posted another 26 yard performance in an overtime win against Rutgers. In desperate situations where the Spartans needed a big play, it was Reed, not Coleman, who they looked to.
This would sometimes rub the receiver the wrong way. Like you’d expect from any top level receiver, Coleman would be frustrated in the locker room when he felt he wasn’t getting the ball enough.
Solari said that the other players Coleman had around him may have eaten into his production. And while he certainly did play next to other NFL talents in his career, he should have been much better than them. Reed was a mid-second round pick in 2023. The Seminoles next two top receivers were Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell, who are both day three prospects in the 2024 draft.
And sure, the Spartans sucked. Payton Thorne, now an Auburn Tiger, is not a great quarterback and will not have an NFL future. But elite NFL talents usually stand out on bad college football teams. But he was just 19, and still had a chance to prove he could produce at a high level.
Solari told Bird’s Eye Football, however, that it was likely finances and not opportunity that pulled Coleman to Florida State. He describes it as a “business decision”. There were rumors that the receiver was negotiating with the Spartans NIL collective to reach his asking price to stick around. A deal was never reached, and Coleman set his sights for Tallahassee.
There is little ill-will between the receiver and his former team, though. Solari says that he still shows face at events and has a relationship with the athletic program’s top brass. Michigan State fans seemed to largely rally around him last season, cheering him on from afar as the Spartans suffered a tough 2023 campaign.
The LSU game looked like a culmination for Coleman. Now a junior, a matured 20-year-old. He was ready to live up to the hype. But after that opening night, the next steps just never came.
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Coleman’s projection to the NFL level is a tough one. He clearly has a lot of raw talent, but he isn’t the full package.
White he is a big guy with great hands and has the ability to use his body to dominate smaller defenders downfield and high point the football, his athletic profile still leaves much to ask for. Coleman is slow, running a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His route running isn’t great, he doesn’t have short space quickness. His production is almost entirely reliant on being able to box out corners and grab rebounds over them. Despite being bigger than basically every corner in college football, he struggled to deal with press coverage.
At times, it’s hard to see how Coleman projects to the NFL, especially as a first round pick. He is a big body guy who can catch jump balls, but this style of play only works if he has a quarterback both confident and talented enough to put the ball on him.
Coleman can move a bit, however. While he lacks speed, he can be hard to track down with the ball in his hands. His first touchdown against the Tigers in the 2023 season opener came on a slant route he took 40 yards to the house. The receiver is a smart runner, he picks his paths in the open field well and can be surprisingly slippery for someone that big.
"I'm a big receiver," Coleman continued for ESPN. "I can play big. But I can play small. I can do it all."
Matt Harmon, creator of Reception Perception, told Bird’s Eye Football that he thinks Coleman is a slot receiver. A player who can dominate inside against smaller nickels and safeties — as he did to Major Burns against LSU.
“In the NFL, you stick him inside, and he's been really good in that role [for Florida State],” Harmon said. ”If I'm an [NFL] offensive coordinator, and we're gonna draft Coleman I'd like to find a role like that where we stick him inside.”
The Florida State product does not have the speed to play as a true outside receiver, but his hands and run-after-catch ability could make him an interesting slot receiver.
Harmon thinks letting Coleman work short, high percentage routes inside could help him thrive at first, and then he could “grow from there”.
He does not think Coleman is a first round prospect. Many mocks have the receiver in the late first and early second round, somewhere between the ninth and tenth best receiver in an all-time great class. Harmon sees Coleman ideally going in the mid-to-late second round — around where Reed went to the Packers last year — but could go earlier if a team has a “specific plan” for him.
The Los Angeles Chargers jump out as a team that could take a risk on Coleman. The wide receiver needy team picks 37th overall, and if they choose against a swing for Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr. or another top prospect in round 1, Coleman is a great fit.
Later in the draft, Coleman could be an option for the Cincinnati Bengals at 49th overall, or could even join Reed on the Packers at pick 58.
Harmon also compares Coleman to Marques Colston, a great New Orleans Saints receiver who made a career as Drew Brees’ top guy after being drafted in the seventh round out of Hofstra in 2006. Colston is bigger and slightly faster than Coleman, but Harmon thinks that Denver Broncos head coach, and former Saints coach, Sean Payton may take a swing to find another version of his former WR1.